Has Science Failed Us With the BP Oil Spill?

I came across a quote in Time from Elizabeth Rosenthal, originally in the NYTimes on May 28th 2010, in which she says that America's belief that technology will save us (in general) is apparently misplaced because "scientists" haven't been able to stop the spill.

This is so many kinds of absurd that I felt motivated to write again. Remember that science is only a method by which we determine the probability of certain outcomes given specific circumstances. The more that circumstances are changed, the less able we are to predict outcomes.

Does America believe that science will save us?
I can actually go along with this, but it takes different forms when you look at subgroups of Americans. For example, your typical Republican or Libertarian thinks it's a great idea to remove pollution restrictions from products and companies because they believe science will help us fix the environment and cure cancer and so forth in the future (and they have completely disproven beliefs that consumers will force companies to be environmentally and health conscious by only buying responsible products). Your more liberal person may have the more accurate idea that science will certainly tell us what should be done to save us from various threats, as it greatly already has, but people have to actually take action and engage in prescribed behaviors to be saved. For example, science has informed us that obesity is very bad, and we can be saved from obesity by mindfully eating less, mostly plants, and getting exercise, but some folks keep stuffing themselves at McDonald's and waiting for a drug to be invented that will save them. So, science can certainly save us from threats when we actually use it to guide behavior, and when we have done enough science to make sure we have good results across real circumstances.

How does science relate to the spill?
There have been many oil wells and oil rigs over the last century. Some have spilled. Information has been collected and used scientifically to develop specific pipes, valves, computers, etc... to minimize the risk of spills. It seems that there is a disconnect, though, between the greedy businessmen who control the oil (BP) and construction (Halliburton) companies and the government (MMS) via lobbying and campaign contributions to ignorant shill politicians and actual scientists who are several rungs down the ladder in each organization. The greedy, irresponsible guys found out from their geologists that there was a huge oil deposit way deep in the gulf. It's relatively new to drill so far under water and down into the earth. Since this type of drilling is newer, there is less information, and we have less of an ability to predict what will happen. Science would inform us to be cautious, and maybe start with only a couple wells and monitor them for a long time before making more. The government authorized a whole bunch, though, because money told them to. There was not good oversight, not good monitoring, and an insufficient adjustment in the approach to the new conditions. The business approach was not scientific enough. Abnormally high-pressured oil combined with an unscientific approach to analyzing situations contributed to the failures that led to this spill.

Hasn't science failed to fix the spill?
Trying all of the different (seemingly crazy and often mocked) ideas of fixing the spill IS SCIENCE. Try a bunch of stuff and see what happens, then adjust your ideas based on the results and try new stuff. Has that process failed to fix the spill so far? Yes, but so what? There is nothing better to do. Doing nothing would certainly not fix the spill, and not give us information for the future. If we already knew how to fix the spill, we would have done that, which would have been the result of earlier application of science. We're having a hard time because of the new circumstances, but that doesn't make science the wrong thing to do. When we eventually fix the spill, it will be because of using the scientific method.

Should we pray to God instead of using science?
Louisiana just tried that. How did it work out? By the way, that's also science. The scientific method has shown us (in many contexts) that prayer doesn't do anything (oil spills are not subject to placebo effects). There is no evidence of an interventionist god at present.

Is this Obama's fault?
No. That doesn't even make sense. Why would the president, a former lawyer, know more about fixing oil spills than British Petroleum? What do you expect him to do? Tell the armed forces to fix it? Appoint a responsible person to head MMS? He already did that, and she was so overwhelmed by what a screwup agency it was that she left. We are facing a very large, systemic problem with how our government interacts with our corporate overlords. I'm amazed that Obama was even able to demand $20 billion from BP to compensate people for how the spill has affected their jobs, and Republican congressmen said BP shouldn't have to! I don't agree with everything Obama does, but he's doing some good things for American people, and it doesn't make a lick of sense to hold him responsible for this mess.

Divorce and Remarriage

Pew, a company that does many surveys, came out with this interactive map of proportions of married, divorced, and 3+x remarried men and women by state. Here is what is remarkable about the rates:

Conservative parts of the country have higher proportions of divorced and multiply remarried residents. The "Red" states that often refer to themselves as the "Real America" and bastions of "family values", homes of the "moral majority", are quite divorce-happy compared to the more liberal states.

Top 5 states for 3+ marriages:
Arkansas (10% men, 10% women)
Oklahoma (9% men, 10% women)
Tennessee (9% men, 8% women)
Alabama (8% men, 8% women)
Mississippi (8% men, 8% women)

Bottom 5 states for 3+ marriages:
Massachusetts (2% men, 2% women)
New Jersey (2% men, 2% women)
New York (2% men, 2% women)
Connecticut (3% men, 2% women)
Minnesota (3% men, 3% women)

Top 5 states for currently divorced residents:
Nevada (13% men, 16% women)
Maine (12% men, 15% women)
Montana (12% men, 13% women)
Wyoming (12% men, 13% women)
Oklahoma (12% men, 14% women)

Bottom 5 states for currently divorced residents:
New Jersey (7% men, 10% women)
New York (7% men, 10% women)
Massachusetts (8% men, 10% women)
California (8% men, 11% women)
Virginia (8% men, 11% women)

The consistently higher proportions of currently divorced women compared to men is probably due in large part to child custody inhibiting remarriage. Women are overwhelmingly granted custody in divorce courts. Divorcees with children in the home have more trouble finding new spouses, and may also be less inclined to try to find a new spouse as the process can cause problems for the children.

As I have written about more extensively in another blog, there is a clear relationship between conservativism and bad decision making that I understand to have a neurological foundation. People who grow up with fear in a strict and belief-based environment develop brains that desire very simple and concrete information (e.g.:America is good. Homosexuality is bad. Muslims are bad.). They are overwhelmed by ambiguity and complexity, and depend on whatever very simple dogma they've been indoctrinated with, or their immediate emotional reactions to make decisions.

This emotional impulsivity, combined with a characteristic avoidance of contemplating the many possible ramifications of actions because that would be too overwhelming and complicated, leads to the following phenomena that we see happening at much higher rates in conservative states than in liberal states (check out GapMinder):

Teen pregnancy
Infant mortality
Violence
Pollution
Divorce (related to young marriage, also in the Pew map)
Poor education
Higher drug use
Earlier death
Obesity

I am sure the list can go on and on. These things all are rooted in impulsive behavior that focuses on emotions and immediate gratification without consideration for consequences and the long term. Conservatives are very hostile towards liberal ideas and values, but the outcomes are clear. The outcomes show us what attitudes and behaviors are best for our country. We need to stop the lies and hypocrisy, and focus on implementing best practices to bring about the good and sustainable outcomes we want for our descendants.